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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."