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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.